ECON10005: Quantitative Methods 计量方法 assignment 代写

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  • ECON10005: Quantitative Methods 计量方法 assignment 代写

    ECON10005: Quantitative Methods 1
    Second Semester, 2017
    First Assignment
    Due by: 1 pm on Monday 4 September 2017
    Students must read the following instructions carefully before working on the assignment.
    Assignments of those who fail to follow the instructions will not be accepted.
    • This assignment must be submitted online via LMS by 1 pm on the above due date.
    Any assignments not submitted by the due date and time will be given a mark of zero.
    This assignment is worth 7.5 per cent of the final grade for Quantitative Methods 1.
    • A group of two, three or four students (but no more than four students) may work
    together and submit one set of assignment answers for the group. All members of the
    group, however, MUST be enrolled in the same tutorial. Individuals may work alone
    if they wish and submit their own assignment answers, but I would urge students to
    work in groups.
    • Assignment submission has two stages: 1. Register your assignment group and 2.
    Submit the assignment online via LMS.
    Students must register their groups by going to the link that will be made available on
    the LMS in week 5 (announcement will be sent out). Assignments of groups which are
    not registered through this system will not be accepted. A separate link will be given to
    submit your assignment, once the assignment group registration process is completed.
    • For assignments submitted as a group, all valid group members will receive the same
    mark for the assignment. Students that attempt to submit an assignment with a group
    that is not in their own tutorial, or in a group with more than four members, will not
    receive any credit for the assignment. Students will form their own groups.
    • All the assignments should be typed and should be converted into PDF before
    submitting online via LMS. Students must preview their assignment after uploading on
    the LMS to see if they have uploaded the correct/complete assignment and the
    formatting is in order as in their original document. Any version of the assignment
    submitted after the deadline due to formatting issues or submitting an incomplete
    version will not be accepted.
    • Please make sure to include a cover page with student IDs and names of all the
    members in the group.
    The purpose of this assignment is to give you practice working with the underlying concepts of
    quantitative methods, and to give you feedback on your understanding of these concepts.
    A/Prof Liana Jacobi
    Department of Economics
    The University of Melbourne
    2
    Question 1
    Background
    Are young people more likely to do risky things? This is the perception that exists in many
    societies. Young people are thought to be more “reckless” than older people, taking more
    chances, and not thinking as much about the future. But does this view have any basis? What
    is the evidence on the level of risk-taking by people of different ages?
    Newspoll is a company that regularly surveys Australians on a range of issues, including their
    views on various politicians and political matters. This company also asks Australians about a
    number of issues unrelated to politics. A few years ago Newspoll surveyed 1200 Australians
    over the age of 18 by telephone between 28 February and 2 March 2014. Individuals were
    chosen for inclusion in the survey randomly using a list of all home telephone numbers in
    Australia. These individuals were asked 12 questions regarding potential risky behaviour.
    For this assignment, we will focus on 2 of the 12 questions asked in the survey, and their
    relationship with age.
    The first question you will investigate is as follows:
    Would you say that you do the following thing every time, most times, sometimes, rarely or
    never?
    Exceed the speed limit while driving at some stage by more than 5 kilometres per hour.
    The responses by age group are provided in the table below. The numbers are the total
    responses in each age group, e.g. 7 people aged 18 to 24 stated that they speed every time
    they drive.
    18-24  25-34  35-49  50-64  65+  TOTAL
    Every time  7  10  18  9  3  47
    Most times  5  9  25  15  4  58
    Sometimes  39  58  159  130  87  473
    Rarely  22  42  87  78  104  333
    Never  31  24  68  52  114  289
    TOTAL  104  143  357  284  312  1200
    The second question of interest is as follows:
    How often do you do the following thing? Would it be at least once a week, at least once a
    month, a few times a year, once a year, less often or never?
    Consume food or drinks that are past their "best before" or "use by" date.
    The responses by age group are provided in the table below.
    18-24  25-34  35-49  50-64  65+  TOTAL
    At least once a week  4  3  14  17  16  54
    At least once a month  12  15  36  38  36  137
    Few times a year  6  17  76  49  59  207
    Once a year  8  7  22  12  20  69
    Less often  12  12  29  26  30  109
    Never  62  89  180  142  151  624
    TOTAL  104  143  357  284  312  1200

    ECON10005: Quantitative Methods 计量方法 assignment 代写
    3
    Complete the following tasks
    a. Provide an appropriate graph and table to compare the varied responses to the first
    question above on the likelihood of speeding by age group. Explain briefly why you
    chose this particular graph type and table for this objective. Is there any evidence that
    young people are more likely to speed? Explain your answer. Provide at least one
    potential reason for your findings here.
    b. Provide an appropriate graph and table to compare the varied responses to the second
    question above regarding the likelihood of consuming food or drinks beyond their “use
    by” date. Explain briefly why you chose this particular graph type and table for this
    objective. Is there any evidence that young people are more likely to engage in such
    risky behaviour regarding their health than older people? Explain your answer. Provide
    at least one potential reason for your findings here.
    c. Considering both questions investigated above, do you think that there are any potential
    sources of bias? Write down and briefly explain all potential sources of bias in this
    survey. Be specific about the underlying causes of bias for this particular survey and the
    two specific questions investigated.
    (12 marks)
    Question  2
    Background
    There has been considerable interest in recent years on house prices in Australia. Some
    commentators have suggested that recent house price increases have been excessive, and prices
    are likely to fall considerably in the future. Most concern regards house prices in Sydney and
    Melbourne, but concerns have also been raised about other cities in Australia.
    Your task is to provide information to illustrate how house prices have moved over time in four
    major cities in Australia: Brisbane, Canberra, Adelaide and Darwin
    The file “Houseprices.xlsx” contains the median house prices for Brisbane, Canberra, Adelaide
    and Darwin from March 2002 to March 2017. The data has been collected by the Australian
    Bureau of Statistics (ABS) and is available on their website:
    http://www.abs.gov.au/
    House price information in the Excel file is based on the median data reported for “Established
    House Transfers” from the following ABS release:
    “Residential Property Price Indexes: Eight Capital Cities” – catalogue number 6416.0
    The online release includes Excel tables of time series data for each capital city in Australia.
    The data provided for this question has been sourced from “Tables 4 and 5. Median Price
    (unstratified) and Number of Transfers (Capital City and Rest of State)” from the June 2017
    issue.
    4
    Complete the following tasks
    a. Provide numerical descriptive statistics in terms of measures of central location (mean,
    median, mode) and measures of dispersion (standard deviation, variance, coefficient of
    variation, range, min, max) for each data series, i.e. house prices in Brisbane, Canberra,
    Adelaide and Darwin from March 2002 to March 2017. Based on those measures,
    compare the location and variation in median house prices across in this period across
    the four cities.
    b. Generate a histogram for each house price series. Briefly describe their shapes.
    To make your histograms comparable, ensure each histogram uses the same set of
    intervals. You may wish to use an interval width of $50,000.
    c. Construct and provide the following percentiles of the house prices in Darwin: the 25 th ,
    50 th and 75 th percentiles. Provide a brief description in words of what these percentiles
    tell us. Are these percentile measures consistent with the shape of the distribution
    observed in your graph in part (b)? Explain briefly.
    d. Provide one appropriate graph to illustrate and compare movements over time in median
    house prices in Brisbane, Canberra, Adelaide and Darwin, from March 2002 to March
    2017.
    e. Briefly describe in words the relative levels and movements over time in the three
    median house price series.
    f. Based on your graph in (d), would you say that there is evidence of any relationship
    between the Adelaide and Brisbane house price series? Next, provide an appropriate
    measure of the strength and sign of the relationship between the two series. Describe
    your measure in words, and describe what you find, focusing on the strength and sign of
    any relationship.
    Repeat this question, but this time compare prices in Darwin and Canberra.
    (18 marks)
    Question 3
    a.  The joint probability distribution of X and Y is shown in the following table.
    (i) Determine the marginal probability distributions of X and Y.
    (ii) Are X and Y independent? (Hint: 2 random variables are independent if p(x, y) = p(x)p(y)
    for all pairs (x, y).)
    (iii) Find P(Y = 2 | X = 1).
    5
    b.  Historical data collected at the Commonwealth Bank in Sydney revealed that 80% of
    all customers applying for a loan are accepted. Suppose that 50 new loan applications
    are selected at random. Define a random variable X as the number of loans accepted
    by the bank (number of successes).
    (i) Compute the expected value and the standard deviation of the number of loans that will be
    accepted by the bank.
    (ii) What is the probability that at least 42 loans will be accepted? Use Excel to answer this
    question.
    (iii) What is the probability that the number of loans rejected is between 10 and 15, inclusive?
    Use Excel to answer this question.
    (iv) Use Excel to compute and then graph the probability distribution of X. Provide the graph.
    (You do not need to provide a table for the probability distribution.)
    (10 marks)
    Your written answers for all questions should not exceed 2500 words (approximately 8-9
    pages).
    END OF ASSIGNMENT
    ECON10005: Quantitative Methods 计量方法 assignment 代写